UFC Vegas 105 predictions: Full card picks for Josh Emmett-Lerone Murphy
The UFC is back at the warehouse for UFC Vegas 105.
Thirteen fights await us on cable TV, this time on ESPN, with the prelim bouts beginning at 6 p.m. ET and the main card on the same channel at 9 p.m.
It’s a prime-time slot for the UFC this weekend at UFC Apex, where it hopes to showcase its product with some impressive finishes.
Six of the 13 fights are expected to end inside the distance, with most of the fights early in the card projected to go to all the way. If you’re looking to build your parlay card on decisions, do it early.
Here are my UFC Vegas picks:
Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy
The best punching power in the UFC’s featherweight division is clear; it’s Emmett.
Emmett isn’t just a tattooed savage, he is a technically sound striker who rocks his opponents every time he steps into the octagon.
He faces Murphy, who is a -340 favorite on Saturday.
It’s a lot of respect for Murphy, who certainly has the speed advantage and can kick Emmett’s multiple-time surgically repaired knees regularly.
But that isn’t enough for me to back the favorite.
We’ve seen Emmett knock opponents out cold with single shots, some of the most brutal stuff we’ve ever seen in the octagon. If you stand with him, you’re asking for trouble.
Now, if you’re able to outwork him with cardio, grappling, and footwork, more power to you.
I just don’t see Murphy as that guy, and when he feels the power that’s coming back at him, he could shell up and eat a shot he’s not comfortable taking.
Pick: Back the underdog here, as Emmett is a fine bet at +265 on Caesars.
Pat Sabatini vs. Joanderson Brito
This fight is a bit curious to me as a co-main event. Other fights could have been showcased here.
Sabatini is a wrestler first, having some fun fights against Jonathan Pearce and Lucas Almeida.
Typically, you’d think a wrestler is a decision fighter — and you’d be right with that assumption — but Sabatini is always looking to win by TKO or submission with his grappling.
Against Brito, he might have a tough time getting him to the mat.
Brito is decently well-versed on the mat, with seven of his 17 wins coming by submission.
Brito is a -220 favorite in this fight, with the theory being that he dominates every stand-up moment with TKO opportunities throughout.
Sabatini is mostly a sitting duck while standing up, especially against a guy like Brito.
If Sabatini can get him to the mat, he should have a shot here. But Brito is very explosive with his movements, and his power is excellent.
Go with a same-game parlay here.
Picks: Fight starts Round 2 + Brito wins (-105, DraftKings)
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Full cardpicks (main and prelims)
Cortavious Romious vs. ChangHo Lee: Romious moneyline (+120, Fanatics Sportsbook).
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Martin Buday: Nzechukwu by KO/TKO (+150, Bet365).
Brad Tavares vs. Gerald Meerschaert: Fight goes to decision (+136, BetRivers).
Torrez Finney vs. Robert Valentin: Finney by decision (+270, DraftKings); bet takedown props when they are posted by DraftKings/Bet365.
Ode’ Osbourne vs. Luis Gurule: Fight goes the distance (+108 BetRivers).
Davey Grant vs. Daniel Santos: Santos moneyline (-148).
Diana Belbita vs. Dione Barbosa: Fight goes the distance (+135, BetMGM).
Rhys McKee vs. Daniel Frunza: McKee by decision (+325, BetRivers).
Loma Lookboonmee vs. Istela Nunes: Pass.
Victor Henry vs. Pedro Falcao: Falcao (+180, DraftKings).
Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Talita Alencar: Fight ends via submission (+500, FanDuel).
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