Why LIV golfers are undervalued and slept on going into the Masters
The 2025 Masters is just two days away, which means water coolers around the world are being monopolized by punters looking to talk about their picks, favorite bets and how they’re going to win their pool.
Right now, before a single ball has been played, everyone seems to have the answers to all the big questions at Augusta.
Is this finally going to be Rory McIlroy’s year? Will Scottie Scheffler repeat? Is it Ludvig Aberg’s time?
Toss any of those queries out by the coffee machine and you’re likely to get an impassioned answer thrown right back at you.
But one question still feels a little bit taboo. It’s the elephant in the office snack room.
What do you do with the golfers who bolted for LIV?
It’s been nearly three years since the debut of LIV at the Centurion Club in Hertfordshire, England, but the wounds from the schism still feel raw. The sport has changed – most would argue for the worse – and that has turned some of the world’s most popular players into heels.
These cuts are so deep that even if the PGA and LIV do come to some sort of agreement and merge, it will take years for fans to forgive the defectors.
Fans can feel however they want to about LIV and the players who deserted the PGA Tour looking to cash in on Saudi money, but the equation should change when it comes to betting.
Seasoned bettors know that you’re supposed to do everything you can to strip emotion out of the equation. The old adage tells us to bet with your head, not with your heart.
This is why you can’t just ignore – or fade – LIV players if you’re looking to win your Masters pool.
In fact, it would likely be wise to go in the opposite direction and embrace these players when it comes time to place your bet or fill out your roster for your Masters pool.
There are certain sporting events where casual money pours in at an unprecedented rate. Most people who bet on the Kentucky Derby watch one horse race a year.
The Masters is golf’s version of the Run for the Roses. Yes, there will be plenty of smart money pouring in this week, but most people with skin at the game at Augusta will be once-a-year types.
That should alter your strategy for betting the Masters, especially if you’re playing in a large pool.
Most casual punters want to bet on players they like. They don’t want to break that fourth wall of cheering for the enemy. That means that LIV golfers, barring a couple of exceptions, will likely fly under the radar at Augusta.
Jon Rahm is a good example of this phenomenon.
This will be Rahm’s ninth trip to Augusta. Not only did the Spaniard win the green jacket in 2023, but he has finished inside the top 10 in more than half of his trips to Augusta.
Rahm’s current form is also terrific, with five top-10 finishes in five starts on LIV in 2025.
And yet, Rahm (14/1) is being offered at more than double the price of Rory McIlroy (+650).
McIlroy has been splendid this season, but does he deserve to be that much higher than Rahm on the betting board?
Or do bookmakers feel comfortable hanging that price on Rahm – who was always near the top of the board at majors during his salad days on the PGA Tour – because they know he won’t attract a ton of action since he’s on LIV?
The answer seems obvious.
It isn’t just Rahm that will provide value as a contrarian option to his peers.
Brooks Koepka (30/1) and Joaquin Niemann (28/1) seem like savvy pivots over Justin Thomas (22/1), Jordan Spieth (30/1), and Patrick Cantlay (33/1), all of whom will likely be trendy picks in pools in their respective range.
There’s no exact science to finding value in a tournament like the Masters. The influx of casual money and recreational bettors changes the equation of an already volatile sport.
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But one way you can always give yourself a leg up in these situations is to zag while others zig, so long as you aren’t zagging just for the sake of it.
In this instance, backing LIV players – the black hats of the golf universe at the moment – seems like a logical way to squeeze some extra value out of Augusta.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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