2025 NFL Draft betting: Introducing the chaos theory
Sometimes it feels like the first round (or at least the first handful of picks) of the NFL Draft is a foregone conclusion by the time we turn on the broadcast.
News travels so fast these days, and there are so many folks who have access to information, that word gets out to the masses in a matter of seconds.
That creates quite the song and dance for bettors, who are in direct competition with the sportsbooks to find – and act on – information before the bookies react.
Mock drafters, beat reporters, and insiders all have the potential to move markets with one story, interview, or tweet.
Because all of this information inevitably gets out before the draft starts, it does feel like betting into the market on the day of the draft is a fool’s errand.
And while it is true you should really rein it in as you get closer Draft Day because the market has settled, there is one strategy worth exploring in the hours leading up to the show.
We’ll copy Steven Spielberg’s homework and call it the “chaos theory.”
Simply put, this is a way to set up a high-ceiling betting card, responsibly, in case an inexplicable event happens.
As the chaos theory from “Jurassic Park” suggests, if one unexpected occurrence happens, then it will cause a chain reaction, and more surprises will be in store.
In the case of the NFL Draft, if there is one surprise at the top of the board, it will throw the entire thing off script and cause everybody to change course, which would open the door to some terrific betting opportunities.
We’re not suggesting you should bet big bucks on this, nor should you get carried away with nonsensical wagers, but if you’ve got some lunch money you want to use to bet the draft, this is one way to use it.
For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll use $20 as our bankroll.
The most important step to this strategy is identifying the potential landmines in the draft. Cam Ward is almost certain to go No. 1 overall to the Titans, so we’ll bypass him.
But that brings us to the first fork in the road. Who will the Cleveland Browns select with the No. 2 pick?
The oddsmakers believe that the Browns will take two-way sensation Travis Hunter. He is -1000 to go No. 2 overall, and most – but not all – mock drafts have him going to Cleveland in this spot.
The likeliest scenario is that Hunter goes second, but he’s such a unique player that I would argue he is the top-five prospect that has the highest potential of falling down the board. He’s the blue-chipper that would be most likely to be left at the altar.
Plus, these are the Browns we’re talking about. They have been searching for a quarterback since Reagan won a landslide in ‘84.
Shedeur Sanders is 22/1 at BetMGM sportsbook. Let’s toss five bucks out of our pot on Sanders.
If Sanders goes second, that means the Giants will now have the opportunity to pick Hunter at No. 3 overall. Would Big Blue change course from Abdul Carter, the massive favorite to go third, to take Hunter?
I’m going to say no, which means Hunter continues to fall.
That brings us to the Patriots at No. 4. If things go according to plan, Will Campbell goes to the Pats here. But we’re swimming upstream here.
With Ward, Sanders, and Carter off the board, the Patriots can go with Campbell or Hunter.
Protecting Drake Maye is the priority for the Pats, so we’ll pass on this spot and instead look at the next pick as a potential home run.
The fifth pick belongs to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are expected to be between Mason Graham and Ashton Jeanty. But if Hunter is there, I have a hard time believing that the Jags will pass on him.
We’ll toss $5 on Hunter to fall to No. 5 at 100/1.
That’s chaos scenario No. 1 done and dusted. We now have 10 bucks down with a possible ROI of $610.
The other chaotic path to stroll down is that a team just gets completely enamored with Ashton Jeanty and either picks him higher than expected, or trades up to grab the Boise State running back.
The two teams that are connected with Jeanty the most are the Jacksonville Jaguars, who pick fifth, and Las Vegas Raiders, who pick sixth.
That’s important to note for a couple of reasons. First, if the Raiders want Jeanty, they may need to hop the Jaguars. Second, if an outsider wants a crack at the runner-up for the 2024 Heisman, they’d need to deal their way into the top-5, at the very least.
The Titans aren’t moving off the first pick, but what about those Browns?
Once again, this is a team that needs a quarterback, and Sanders, the only other QB expected to go inside the top 15, will likely go by the Giants, Patriots, and Jaguars.
If Cleveland decides it wants to go the QB route, it can afford to move back a few spots and acquire more picks to fill other holes.
Should the Browns do that, it could be the Raiders that are willing to pay a price to jump from sixth to second, to prevent one of the Giants, Patriots, or Jaguars from stealing Jeanty from under their noses. There’s also a potential scenario where Cleveland gets an offer from an outsider for the No. 2 spot, and Vegas has to match it.
The point is, there are a couple of paths – unlikely as they may be – where the Browns shimmy down the order and accrue assets while still being able to address their biggest need.
Betting on the NFL?
Jeanty is 150/1 to go No. 2 overall at BetMGM. I say it’s worth a tenner.
And there you have it, the “chaos theory” for betting on the 2025 NFL Draft.
Will it win? Unlikely.
But will it be fun?
At least for a few seconds.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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