Perhaps the chalkiest NCAA Tournament in history will conclude Monday night when Florida or Houston is crowned as the 2025 champions.
The Gators are one-point favorites over the Cougars, with the total sitting at 140.5.
Those odds tell you that there’s very little between these two teams and that everybody expects this to be a close contest.
Here’s how bettors can use that projection to find some value on props and derivatives.
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Houston vs. Florida prop bet
Both of these teams are comfortable grinding out tight games.
Three of Florida’s last four matchups were decided by six points or less, while Houston defeated Duke, Purdue and Gonzaga by a combined 10 points.
It would be a surprise to see either team get much separation in this contest, as both the Cougars and Gators have proven to be masters at hanging around in this tournament.
Florida needed some late heroics to outlast Auburn in the Final Four, while Houston pulled off a stunning comeback against Duke a few hours later.
Another reason to believe that this game will be tight is that there should be a feeling-out process in the early stages of the contest.
Houston is one of the slowest teams in the country, per KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric, but Florida prefers to get things moving.
Both sides will try to wrestle control of the game and it get it on their terms, which should lead to some scrappy play in the opening act.
Just about every sign is there for this to be a nail-biter, and one way to bet into that narrative is to take a shot on this game going to overtime at a big price.
Betting on College Basketball?
You don’t have to go back too far to find the last time the NCAA champion was crowned in overtime. Virginia needed the extra session in 2019 when it defeated Texas Tech, 85-77.
Will there be overtime? (Yes, 10/1 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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